Nieman Lab·2026-04-15

Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat

Depending on whom you ask, prediction markets are either: A dangerous, unregulated form of gambling that allows for degenerate betting on real events, unfettered by the economic and legal rules that keep stock markets and sports betting in check, creating an opportunity for corruption and insider trading on a scale we have never seen before. Perfectly legal crystal balls that could replace polling

预测市场究竟是:一种危险的、不受监管的赌博形式,允许对真实事件进行无节制的押注,不受制于约束股票市场和体育博彩的经济和法律规则,从而为前所未有的腐败和内幕交易创造机会;还是有可能取代民意调查的完全合法的“水晶球”。

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